GI
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered modest top-line growth with revenue up 1% YoY to $125.7M and gross billings up 12% YoY, while net income from continuing operations swung to $20.6M (diluted EPS $0.46); North America Local billings rose 20% YoY and Local revenue +3% .
- Versus estimates, Groupon beat S&P Global consensus on revenue (~$125.7M vs $122.5M*) and on Primary EPS (0.14* vs 0.04*), while company-reported diluted EPS was $0.46 (definitions differ) .
- Management raised full-year billings growth guidance from 3–5% to 7–9%, citing momentum in core Local and Things to Do, and highlighted a completed $244M 2030 convertible refinancing that simplifies the capital structure and enables potential buybacks/M&A .
- Key narrative: billings growth outpacing revenue due to deliberate take-rate dynamics and elevated redemption rates, plus mix shift toward enterprise and “Things to Do”; catalysts include raised billings guidance, strengthened liquidity, and leadership changes (COO/CFO transitions effective Sept 1) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Core Local momentum: North America Local billings +20% YoY and Local revenue +3%; consolidated Local billings +15.4% YoY with unit sales up 7% sequentially .
- Cash generation and liquidity: operating cash flow $28.4M and free cash flow $25.2M in Q2; cash and equivalents ended at $262.6M .
- Strategic progress and raised outlook: “We are raising our full-year billings guidance from 3–5% to 7–9%,” and highlighted accelerating AI-driven traffic and strong Things To Do growth entering peak season .
What Went Wrong
- International softness: revenue down 2% (7% FX-neutral) and gross billings down 3% (7% FX-neutral); active customers down 11% YoY; FX headwinds and impacts from Italy exit and Giftcloud divestiture (ex-Italy/Giftcloud, Local revenue +7% and Local billings +15%) .
- Revenue growth lagging billings: management reiterated that take-rate compression and higher redemption rates (which support long-term marketplace health) are causing revenue to trail billings growth .
- Adjusted EBITDA slightly below prior year: $15.6M vs $16.5M in Q2 2024, reflecting higher marketing intensity and mix effects even as contribution profit held relatively steady .
Financial Results
Quarterly actuals (oldest → newest)
Q2 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus
- Values retrieved from S&P Global
Note: Company-reported diluted EPS was $0.46 (differs from S&P “Primary EPS” definition) .
Segment breakdown – Q2 2025
KPIs and operating intensity (oldest → newest)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our Q2 results demonstrate that Groupon’s transformation is gaining real momentum, with 20% Billings growth in North America Local and accelerating customer acquisition across our core local category.” – CEO Dusan Senkypl .
- “We are raising our full-year billings guidance from 3–5% to 7–9%… We see multiple levers driving accelerating growth and remain confident we are building the foundation for sustained long-term value creation.” – CEO .
- On AI: “We plan to be part of pilot programs, for example with OpenAI… it will be even possible to book Groupon experiences and deals directly through AI agents.” – CEO .
- On capital returns/M&A: “We have an existing share buyback authorization… we will deploy capital only when it represents highly attractive use of funds… we will remain open to strategically aligned acquisitions.” – CEO .
- Leadership changes: “Effective September 1, 2025, Jiri Ponrt will assume COO, and Rana Kashyap will become CFO… both have played critical roles in advancing the Company’s transformation.” – CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- AI search/traffic: Management views AI-sourced traffic as incremental and accelerating; investments aim to make Groupon inventory and booking “AI-ready” (OpenAI pilot, connectors), while SEO remains steady amid Google changes .
- Merchant engagement/microcategories: Salesforce transformation toward consultative partnerships across ~200 microcategories; tailoring UI/UX by category to boost conversion; focus on quality merchants and higher-value deals .
- Billings vs revenue dynamics: Gap driven by higher redemption (good for LTV) and category/enterprise mix with lower take rates (e.g., Things To Do), implying revenue lags billings near term .
- Capital allocation: Buybacks have ~$245M authorization; will be used opportunistically; disciplined approach to M&A; stronger balance sheet post-convert refinancing .
- Italy resolution: Verbal settlement pending formal approvals; reopening Italy is under consideration post-resolution .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 beat S&P Global revenue consensus by ~$3.25M (~2.7%), and beat S&P Primary EPS by ~$0.10; company’s diluted EPS of $0.46 reflects different definition than S&P’s “Primary EPS” .
- With raised full-year billings guidance to 7–9%, and continued Things To Do strength, Street models may need to lift billings trajectories and reassess revenue/take-rate assumptions given management’s emphasis on redemption-driven LTV and enterprise mix .
- Values retrieved from S&P Global
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Billings growth is robust and accelerating in core Local; the revenue/take-rate gap is deliberate and should narrow as marketplace health improves and mix normalizes .
- Guidance lift to 7–9% FY25 billings growth is a positive signal; expect potential estimate revisions focused on billings and perhaps revenue as conversion gains persist .
- Liquidity and capital structure flexibility improved meaningfully via $244M 2030 converts and release of 2027 liens/covenants; optionality for buybacks/M&A exists but will be deployed with discipline .
- AI and platform modernization are strategic levers: growing AI-driven traffic, planned OpenAI booking pilots, and category-specific UX enhancements can support conversion and frequency over 6–12 months .
- International ex-Italy is stabilizing/improving; pending Italy tax settlement and possible reopening could add optional upside to 2026 trajectories .
- Near-term trading: catalysts include any formal guidance updates in earnings commentary, continued Things To Do momentum into late summer/holiday, and clarity on buyback/M&A actions .
- Medium-term thesis: if hyperlocal and enterprise strategies sustain billings > revenue trends while LTV rises, free cash flow durability and valuation re-rating could follow as take-rate dynamics normalize .